The Quiet Exit From U.S. Treasuries | Global Signal™ — Macro Weekly
Japan just sold $70 billion. China is loading gold for the 17th straight month. The Fed’s incoming chair is talking about a Treasury accord. The demand structure under U.S. debt is being renegotiated
While headlines focused on Iran, ceasefires, and AI capex, a different story moved through the data this week — one that ties together the Fed transition, the gold market, the yen, and the $7 trillion refinancing wall.
Three foreign holders. One Fed chair nomination. One framework being floated quietly. Connect them and the picture clarifies.
Dollar share of global allocated reserves, 1999–2025. Source: IMF COFER via World Gold Council.
Executive Signal
Japan likely sold roughly $70 billion in U.S. Treasuries to fund yen intervention during the first week of May — the largest implied foreign Treasury supply event since the 2022 intervention episode. Fed custody holdings of Treasuries for foreign accounts dropped $8.7 billion in a single week, the first decline in a month. Bank of America strategists estimate the full impact on Treasury supply-demand at around $70 billion.
At the same time, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak to 17 consecutive months, with central bank reserves now at a record 2,313 tonnes. Globally, BRICS gold reserves have climbed to 17.4% of total official holdings, up from 11.2% in 2019. The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen to 57% — the lowest since 1994.
And on May 15, Kevin Warsh is expected to take over the Federal Reserve. He has publicly proposed a “new Treasury-Fed accord” — the first time that framework has been seriously floated since 1951.
These three things are not separate stories. They are the same story.
The foreign demand structure that has financed U.S. deficits for forty years is being quietly renegotiated. The Fed is being repositioned to absorb what foreigners no longer will. This is the macro signal of the year. Most readers will not see it framed this way in mainstream coverage for months.
Key Signals at a Glance
Japan likely sold ~$70 billion in U.S. Treasuries the week of May 6 to defend the yen — the supply event most newsletters are not connecting.
China’s central bank bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, reaching a record 2,313 tonnes.
The dollar’s share of global allocated reserves has fallen to 57% — the lowest reading since 1994.
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation vote arrives the week of May 11. His public framework: a new Treasury-Fed accord, last seen in 1951.
M2 money supply hit a record $22.6 trillion in February — 24 consecutive months of expansion. Liquidity is back, not draining.
The real positioning map starts below →
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